August 14, 2006

Supersheik

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah declared Monday that his guerrillas achieved a “strategic, historic victory” against Israel.

Nasrallah, speaking on the day a cease-fire took effect - ending 34 days of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel - called Monday “a great day.”

“We are today before a strategic, historic victory, without exaggeration,” the leader of the Shiite militant group said in a taped speech on Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV.

Nasrallah also promised Hezbollah would help the Lebanese people rebuild.

“The enemy destroyed thousands of houses in the south, the Bekaa and the southern suburbs,” he said.

Associated Press

For the Arab side to declare victory after clashing with Israel is merely what ritual demands. What is new is that the Arab side really did score a strategic and historic victory this time. Here is an analysis from Strategic Forecasting (subscription):

The world’s focus right now is on the cease-fire deal in the Middle East. We think that’s the incorrect focus. The real focus should be on an earthquake that has shaken the region: Hezbollah’s forces, even if they are defeated by Israel in southern Lebanon, will have shown themselves capable of mounting an effective resistance for an extended period of time. The Israelis have not been able to deal them a single, sharp blow and fragment them.

A single assumption has shaped Arab-Israeli relations since 1948: that Israel could decide, if it wished, to resort to war and impose its will on Arab armies. That assumption shaped all political considerations in the region. If Israel is no longer capable of doing that, it follows that a range of political assumptions also are untrue. Consider Jordan: Since 1970, Israel has been the guarantor of Jordanian national security. Consider Egypt: Since Camp David, Egypt has refused to engage Israel militarily. Both of these political certainties have been based on a military certainty — and if that dissolves, so does everything else.

Hezbollah has been fighting a simple, conventional war. It has relied on fortifications, pre-positioned supplies and motivated troops. Israel has sought to defeat Hezbollah without incurring extensive casualties. The first strategy was the air campaign. The second strategy was a complex warfighting/diplomacy strategy designed to achieve Israel’s ends without having to systematically destroy Hezbollah. The end result of this strategy — if it is carried out to its logical conclusion — is that Hezbollah will have fought and survived, and that in fighting, it will have shaped Israeli political decisions. In other words, we will have moved from a world in which Israel’s military force trumps all other considerations to a world in which Israeli military power is circumscribed by Arab power.

Sometimes a tactical draw is enough for a strategic win. The mystique of Israeli power has been dispelled, and Israel, hellbent on “restoring” its “deterrent,” has undermined it instead. Meanwhile it has sown enough hate to fuel Islamist radicalism for generations.

Of course, it hasn’t escaped the Arab masses that it was a paramilitary, subnational movement that stood up to the bully, while the perfumed operette dictators stood idly by, as they did during the invasion of Iraq. This too bodes ill for the traditional power elite on which Usrael relies.

Nasser was beloved (and to some extent, still is) just for trying to take on Israel, even though he failed. Nasrallah has tried and succeeded. As to those in Lebanon who still do not love Hizbollah, there is the Machiavellian maxim that being feared is more desirable than being loved. Warned the Lebanese pundit Michael Young in the NYT back on August 4:

If Hezbollah merely survives as both a political and military organization, it can claim victory. The result may be the expansion of the party’s authority over the political system, thanks to its weaponry and its considerable sway over the Lebanese Army, which has a substantial Shiite base. This, in turn, might lead to a solidification of Iranian influence and the restoration of Syrian influence….

As the violence continues, retribution is in the air. Israel has focused its attacks on Shiites, leaving Sunni, Christian and Druse areas (though not their long-term welfare) relatively intact. Amid all the destruction, many a representative of the March 14 movement has denounced Hezbollah’s ‘‘adventurism,’’ provoking Shiite resentment. As one Hezbollah combatant recently told The Guardian: ‘‘The real battle is after the end of this war. We will have to settle score with the Lebanese politicians. We also have the best security and intelligence apparatus in this country, and we can reach any of those people who are speaking against us now. Let’s finish with the Israelis, and then we will settle scores later.’’

Uh-oh.

As far as I can see, this has been a disaster for Usrael and for long-term Western interests in general. But I’m sure the luminous minds of Bush and Olmert have got it all figured out.

August 12, 2006

Gaarder clarifies view on Israel, Jews

When I posted my unauthorized translation to English of Jostein Gaarder’s essay ‘God’s chosen people’, I had no idea of the amount of international attention it would attract. Had I known that it would be quoted in Haaretz and, in a crossposted incarnation at Booman Tribune, quoted and linked to by Time Magazine’s blog and linked to by Der Spiegel, I would certainly have spent more time on it, though it still strikes me as mostly accurate.

Yet my surprise at the brouhaha pales to insignificance compared to the author’s shock at the firestorm his piece set off, especially in Norway but also abroad. The debate has been raging for a week among intellectuals, writers, politicians, and thousands of Joes and Janes writing LTEs or duking it out online: Is the essay foul and dangerous anti-Semitism, or simply a brave calling out of a country in the process of committing moral suicide before our eyes?

Despite my intention not to post more on this subject, I guess I owe it to Jostein Gaarder to also translate his follow-up op-ed, wherein he answers his critics. As I thought, he does not advocate the abolition of Israel as such, but cautions that “Israel’s intransigent policies with respect to its neighbors may in the long term pose a threat to Israel itself.”

As before, the translation is unofficial and neither solicited nor reviewed by Jostein Gaarder.


An attempt to clarify

Jostein Gaarder, Aftenposten 12.08.06

From the Norwegian by Sirocco

I evidently have been misunderstood by many due to the literary technique I used when writing the op-ed about “God’s chosen people,” and I therefore find it necessary to return to the Aftenposten op-ed space with an attempt to clarify.

We need discussion

The genre proved demanding, and I regret if I have hurt anyone — though I intended and still intend to be harsh in my critique of the state of Israel. However, we need the discussion and exchange of views of public conversation. I mean by this fair discussions and exchanges of view — not inarticulate abuse.

The dream of dialogue

I give thanks for all rational criticism — and naturally, for all declarations of support. I also noticed a wise and sober commentary piece by the chair of The Mosaic Religious Community, Anne Sender. We have disagreed fervently in this matter, but I share with her the “dream of dialogue.”

In my Aftenposten op-ed on Saturday August 5 I wrote among other things: “We recognize and pay heed to Europe’s deep responsibility for the plight of the Jews, for the disgraceful harassment, the pogroms, and the Holocaust. It was historically and morally necessary for Jews to get their own home.” It is on this background and from this fundamental premise — to wit, the recognition of the state of Israel — that I sharply criticize the state of Israel’s policy of war.

What ‘recognize’ means

The op-ed begins with this rhetorical touch: “It is time to learn a new lesson: We do no longer recognize the state of Israel….” It has no doubt spawned much confusion that I have here deliberately played on several meanings of the word ‘recognize’. I refer at one point to the international legal recognition of a state, but I also use the word in the sense of being recognized for a practice, win recognition, enjoy recognition, etc. Or as in my op-ed: “We do not recognize the rhetoric of the state of Israel. We do not recognize the spiral of retribution of the blood vengeance… etc.” And towards the end: “We do not recognize the state of Israel. Not today, not as of this writing, not in the hour of grief and wrath.” (italics added) The op-ed was written on the same day that the pictures from Qana reached us.

1948 versus 1967

Regarding matters of international law, I specify, as I have also tried to emphasize in all interviews: “We recognize the state of Israel of 1948, but not the one of 1967. It is the state of Israel that fails to recognize, respect, or defer to the internationally lawful Israeli state of 1948.”

I thus do not dispute the state of Israel’s right to exist within the borders of 1948, but the border extension of 1967 by means of military force violates international law. In this I have both the UN and the majority of world opinion with me.

No god-given mandate

Many have expressed a view that I conflate religion and politics. I tried to do the exact opposite. When I have entitled the op-ed “God’s chosen people,” it is in order to emphasize that we must never accept that any party to a conflict can claim a god-given mandate.

Here it is primarily what we may call “Christian Zionist” notions I have had in mind, i.e. notions that God still has a plan for the Jews, and that what is going on in the Middle East today is an omen of the Acopalypse, the Second Coming, etc.

Back to Israel

One instance of what I warned against is the fresh statements from a representative of the Pentecostal movement’s work in Israel. He points out that the Second Coming and salvation for the believers are tied to Jews being able to return to Israel. By Israel he means “From the wilderness, and this Lebanon, even to the great river, the river Euphrates, all the land of the Hittites, and to the great sea toward the going down of the sun” (Joshua 1,4).

According to a recent edition of a newspaper he says: “How can we trust God if He does not fulfill these promises? This is of the essence for many Evangelical Christians, among them 70 million in the USA.” He continues: “Neither Judea nor Samaria have been part of the Arab realm. Why does one persist in using the concept ‘occupied land’?” Corresponding conceptions are also represented among Orthodox Jews, especially some settlers in the occupied areas.

Richer in humanism

I do not believe that Jewish thought and practice have been any less humanistic than what is found in Christian or Muslim history. Maybe quite the contrary; I think a comparative study might have to conclude that the culture and practices of Jews have by and large been richer in humanism and freer from religious fanaticism than what the Christian cultural area has to show for itself (with its crusades, conquistadors, inquisitions, persecutions of Jews, and the Holocaust, etc.).

Different interpretations

But that was not the point. Only in regard to the very notion of “the Kingdom of God” do I believe that Jesu’ preaching and what I take to be Christianity have had a more humanistic interpretation than the late-Jewish, and now Christian Zionist, notion of a political restoration of the Kingdom of David as a “Kingdom of God” for the people of Israel. I am here referring to different interpretations of the religious message — be they Christian or Jewish — and to the problems we all encounter when extreme interpretations are put into life.

A symbol of intransigence

“May spirit and word sweep away the apartheid walls of Israel,” I write. Thus I hope that diplomacy and intellectual force will suffice to convince Israel that the illegal wall on occupied land must be torn down, not least because it will otherwise remain as a monumental symbol of intransigence. The wall does not only cause daily irritation and harm to the Palestinian people, but may in a somewhat longer term be a greater danger to Israel than the country will appreciate.

In other words, I fear Israel’s intransigent policies with respect to its neighbors may in the long term pose a threat to Israel itself.

Violence against civilan population

I naturally do not advocate that any citizens of Israel should ever have to leave their country. I do not even consider it a possibility. When I evoke an image of Israeli civilians fleeing the ‘occupied areas’ (such as Jerusalem and the West Bank), I realize that this may elicit strong emotions.

Yet the message is crystal clear: Whatever the background and context — whatever religious or eschatological conceptions we might have — we never can tolerate violence against a civilian population.

Triggering anti-Semitism

And finally: It can be outright irresponsible to prematurely accuse a debater of anti-Semitism — simply because it may serve to legitimize and trigger anti-Semitism. (If he or she is an anti-Semite, hey, maybe it ain’t so bad….) When one of the provincial councils in Norway decided to boycott Israeli goods, this was in certain Jewish circles said to be “in the spirit of the Nazis,” and they concluded that “this is unquestionably an expression of anti-Semitism.”

Well, such characterizations are in my view not only highly irrational. In the long term they can prove fatal. For how are we then going to describe Nazism and anti-Semitism?

Missiles and bombs

I hope I have cleared up some misunderstandings with this entry. Meanwhile the missiles and bombs are raining; civilians are dying; roads, water supply, and healthcare are being set back decades. We all owe the victims of war a cry of distress.

Let us now concentrate on the matter of substance.

August 11, 2006

Darfur vs. Lebanon

While Israel, a rogue state, is reducing its northern neighbor to a failed state, Sudan already is both. The escalating disaster in the west of that giant country, larger than Western Europe, is being totally eclipsed by the Lebanon war:

Since Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in July, foreign newspapers have had room for little else. Sudan’s own dailies place headlines about the bombing of Beirut over Sudanese news on aid workers and civilians dying in fighting in Darfur.

“If there hadn’t been a war in Lebanon, we would have all been up in arms over the deterioration in Darfur which has happened of late,” Egeland said.

The top U.N. envoy in Sudan, Jan Pronk, said Darfur was not forgotten but the U.N. Security Council was busy with Lebanon.

“I understand fully well that the Security Council is devoting 95 percent of its time to Lebanon,” he said.

It is not inconceivable that denizens of Darfur are less understanding.

Village torched by Janjaweed milita, Darfur.

Writes leading Darfur specialist, Eric Reeves:

Jan Egeland, head of UN aid operations, put the matter bluntly on August 10: “It’s going from real bad to catastrophic in Darfur.” Aid workers were attacked and killed in unprecedented numbers in July, and all signs are that this pattern will continue.

Humanitarian access has been severely attenuated, and more than 25% of those the UN classifies as “conflict-affected” are beyond the reach of all assistance; in some areas the figure is much greater. This affected population in Darfur, and eastern Chad, now approaches 4 million; in other words, a million people no longer have any access to food assistance, medical care, or adequate clean water. Wholesale humanitarian evacuations draw daily nearer.

All this occurs against a backdrop of rapidly rising malnutrition rates, especially among children under five; an outbreak of cholera, this in the midst of the heaviest part of the rainy season; continuing large-scale civilian displacement; and intolerable conditions amidst many of the camps for displaced persons. The camps themselves are cauldrons of rage and despair, now often turned against the African Union (AU) forces supposedly protecting civilians and humanitarians.

But the hopelessly ineffective AU is unable to enter the vast majority of camps for fear of attack, and has mounted many fewer patrols in recent months. The AU mission is currently slated to end at the end of September, but the UN has still not authorized a successor force.

The stumbling block is oil-thirsty China, whose intransigence on behalf of its rogue client state equals that of the US on Israel’s behalf. Yet there is an asymmetry: Whereas China threatens to veto any Chapter 7 resolution authorizing an international peacekeeping force in defiance of Khartoum, the US threatens to veto any resolution that does not authorize such a force in defiance of Beirut. In other words, China wields its veto power to buttress legal state sovereignty; the US wields its ditto in contradiction thereof. About the humanitarian dimension, neither really gives a damn.

The result may very well be that an international peacekeeping force with a robust mandate is sent to occupy south Lebanon on behalf of Israel as a reward for the latter’s willful and catastrophic escalation of a low-intensity border conflict, while millions of Darfurians continue to be starved, gang raped, shot, or hacked to death by genocidal Janjaweed, abetted by the bombs of the Sudanese Air Force.

Thus the rogue regimes of Khartoum and Tel Aviv will be equally pleased.

It’s a sobering prospect for anyone clinging to the hope that in A.D. 2006, power and basic decency can mix.

For some background on the Darfur disaster, see my post from earlier this year: They sing when they rape.

August 8, 2006

The Gaarder essay: final thoughts

Andrew “Flytrap” Sullivan slams Jostein Gaarder as an anti-Semite calling for the “obliteration” of Israel and for Jews to “surrender.”

These are certainly misinterpretations of the furious, fire-and-brimstone essay I translated. The prophetic voice, speaking in the first person plural, explicitly recognizes the “internationally lawful” Israel of 1948.

True, the voice is at points unclear in separating policy recommendations from the expected bad consequences of ignoring same. In my reading, however, the message is that the Israeli state we know today is no longer sustainable, having forfeited its legitimacy in the eyes of the world:

We must now get used to the idea: The state of Israel in its current form is history.

This is an uplifting prospect, the prophetic voice suggests, for it signals the abolition of apartheid-like injustice:

But fear not! The time of trouble shall soon be over. The state of Israel has seen its Soweto.

Let us briefly pause for a historical sidebar:

[The Soweto massacre of June 16, 1976] marked a turning point in the anti-apartheid struggle. The heroism and leadership of the middle and high school students galvanized millions of Black South Africans and their supporters to take bolder actions. South Africa’s youth became the vanguard leadership in the struggle against apartheid. It brought the world’s attention and solidarity to the oppressed Black people of the country.

The ensuing liberation struggle was predominantly non-violent yet eventually succeeded in ending oppression, with equal rights for all featherless bipeds entrenched in a new constitution. By no means did it involve the physical “obliteration” of South Africa. This is therefore an optimistic forecast, though as Robert Sharp and many others (including Norwegian debaters) rightly complain, it is not made explicit.

Later on, the prophet cautions that the demise of Israel in its current form could also come about in a darker way:

We do not recognize the state of Israel. Not today, not as of this writing, not in the hour of grief and wrath. If the entire Israeli nation should fall to its own devices and parts of the population have to flee the occupied areas into another diaspora, then we say: May the surroundings stay calm and show them mercy.

Thus, if Israel elects to continue its self-destructive policies of occupation and aggression, then the international community is not obliged to prop it up when the tables ultimately turn. This does not, however, amount to “calling for the obliteration of Israel.”

Furthermore, it is unclear to what ‘occupied areas’ refers. If this is simply the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Sheeba Farms, the Golan Heights, and so forth, then the statement is relatively unproblematic.

Otherwise, however — and arguably, in any case — the prophet should not limit himself to petition the victors to give the Jewish refugees free passage (plus “milk and honey”). He should councel letting them stay as citizens of a new and better state, be it called Israel, Palestine, or whatever. Possibly the author has here been tempted to echo his literary model:

For, behold I command, and I will scatter the house of Israel among all the nations; as it is shaken in a sieve, and not a coarse particle falls to the earth. (The Book of Amos, 9:9.)

Be that as it may, this is a serious flaw in Gaarder’s cri du coeur. And it is not the only one. Many critics, including yours truly, have noted how it lumps together a questionable construal of Judaic religion with the state of Israel. It is fair to say that Gaarder has hardly gone out of its way to avoid misunderstanding of his real intent.

Then again, as the Jewish Norwegian journalist Mona Levin — the essay’s fiercest detractor — agrees, that intent is not anti-Semitic.

One last point. Part of my own motivation for translating this piece was to show the extent to which Israel’s international image, outside of the American bubble, is in tatters. Before the ongoing demolition of Lebanon over two abducted soldiers and the engineered humanitarian crisis in Gaza, I doubt that it would have seen print in a major newspaper.

Accordingly, if one insists that it does reflect genuine anti-Semitism, then it also illustrates how Israel’s behavior qua self-declared “Jewish State” unfortunately makes fertile ground for such. As I put it in a previous post:

Not only does Israel’s contempt for human rights and international law antagonize a growing fraction of humanity, which rejects the tired image of a civilized oasis besieged by barbarians. In addition, helped by the efforts of Israel’s propagandists to stifle criticism, this enmity toward a state is increasingly redirected at ethnic Jews everywhere, boosting the irrational sentiment that made necessary the creation of a Jewish nation-state in the first place, long after such nationalist projects had been discredited in Europe.

But that is of course a fact which Flytrap Sullivan and his ilk would never dream of acknowledging.

Update: Gaarder reflects on his essay in an interview with Aftenposten.

Home

August 7, 2006

An unfunny cosmic joke

This isn’t funny anymore. Actually, it ceased to be so quite a while ago.

After some 3,149 Iraqis were killed in June alone and 20,000 citizens of Baghdad — mostly the last tattered remains of the middle class — were driven out by militias during the last ten days of July, Chimpoleon takes stock of the situation:

BUSH: My attitude is that a young democracy has been born quite quickly…. Which gives me confidence about the future in Iraq, by the way. You know, I hear people say, Well, civil war this, civil war that. The Iraqi people decided against civil war when they went to the ballot box. And a unity government is working to respond to the will of the people. And, frankly, it’s quite a remarkable achievement on the political front.

And the security front is where there has been troubles. And it’s going to be up to the Maliki government, with U.S. help, to use the trained forces and eventually a trained police force to take care of those who are trying to foment sectarian violence.

Incredible. By standard scholarly definitions, there has been civil war in Iraq since 2004. And if democracy was “born quickly,” it was either stillborn or strangled in the cradle.

A few days ago, this entity that passes for a US President diagnosed the dramatic conditions a bit farther west:

“There’s a lot of suffering in the Palestinian territory,” Bush mused, “because militant Hamas is trying to stop the advance of democracy.

[snip]

He returned to the theme later in the press conference: “One reason why the Palestinians still suffer is because there are militants who refuse to accept a Palestinian state based upon democratic principles.

I cannot improve on Matt Yglesias’ comment:

It is? Has Bush forgotten that Hamas came to power as a result of elections that he insisted the Palestinian Authority hold? I happen to think the White House made the right call on the question of Palestinian elections — even in retrospect, even knowing that Hamas won — though many observers think his policy has merely backfired. Rather than defend the policy, however, Bush seems to have forgotten all about it.

Obviously that assumes he was aware of it in the first place. Another possibility is that his lips just mindlessly mouthed some staff-prepared script. If that sounds far-fetched, consider this:

In his new book, The End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created A War Without End, Galbraith, the son of the late economist John Kenneth Galbraith, claims that American leadership knew very little about the nature of Iraqi society and the problems it would face after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

A year after his “Axis of Evil” speech before the U.S. Congress, President Bush met with three Iraqi Americans, one of whom became postwar Iraq’s first representative to the United States. The three described what they thought would be the political situation after the fall of Saddam Hussein. During their conversation with the President, Galbraith claims, it became apparent to them that Bush was unfamiliar with the distinction between Sunnis and Shiites.

Galbraith reports that the three of them spent some time explaining to Bush that there are two different sects in Islam–to which the President allegedly responded, “I thought the Iraqis were Muslims!”

Sorry, I don’t know how to properly comment on that. I just don’t.

What I do know, and what in fact any fool with a newspaper must know, is that the New Middle East ™ and adjacent areas are turning out less than stellar under the guiding hand of this monstrous man-child. Here’s Daniel Levy summing it up in Haaretz:

Afghanistan is yet to be secured, Iraq is an exporter of instability and perhaps terror, too, Iranian hard-liners have been strengthened and encouraged, while the public throughout the region is ever-more radicalized, and in the yet-to-be “transformed” regimes of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, is certainly more hostile to Israel and America than its leaders. Neither listening nor talking to important, if problematic, actors in the region has only impoverished policy-making capacity.

Oh, and Lebanon — that tiny place with the adorable “Cedar Revolution” which until a month ago was a showcase for the “domino theory of democracy” — has been reduced to a smoking crater whose hitherto pro-American PM now talks like a Hezbollah spokesman without a beard.

Bush and his regime are a cosmic joke. Yet it’s been a long time since laughter was even possible.

Update: God help us. See Fred Kaplan on the Killer Chimp’s most recent press conference. To make this individual POTUS was an insult to the entire human race.

July 27, 2006

Israel and the UN

Israel defends its destruction of Lebanon with reference to UN Security Council Resolution 1391, calling on Lebanon to seize control of its entire territory. In this context it is interesting to consider Israel’s own record when it comes to UN resolutions.

The Israeli Ambassador to Norway, Miryam Shomrat, has kindly answered questions from readers of the Norwegian daily Aftenposten. One question read: “Is Israel free to pick and choose which UN Resolutions are to be complied with?” Her Excellency replied as follows:

One must distinguish between resolutions decided upon by the UN General Assembly, which are not binding, and resolutions made by the UN Security Council which are binding according to International Law. Israel is adhering to Security Council resolutions.

That’s quite a study in disingenuity. Three follow-ups come to mind:

1. If it’s fine and dandy to ignore UN General Assembly resolutions at will because they aren’t legally binding, why are we constantly reminded that Israel was established under a UN General Assembly resolution? Indeed, Israel’s own establishment proclamation cites this resolution immediately before declaring the state:

On the 29th November, 1947, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution calling for the establishment of a Jewish State in Eretz-Israel; the General Assembly required the inhabitants of Eretz-Israel to take such steps as were necessary on their part for the implementation of that resolution. This recognition by the United Nations of the right of the Jewish people to establish their State is irrevocable.

The ambassador herself complains in another reply: “The historical fact is that when the State of Israel was established the Arab countries attacked it a [sic] war of aggression and at the end of the war refused to sign peace agreements and establish recognised borders - which Israel wanted.” But if a barrage of UN General Assembly resolutions critical of Israel count for nil, why was it so wrong for Arab states to reject the particular resolution authorizing Israel’s creation in the former British Mandate? (For the record, I don’t personally oppose it.)

2. Is it really true that “Israel is adhering to Security Council resolutions”? If by this one means, ‘adhering to some Security Council resolutions’, then it is doubtless so, though not mind-bendingly impressive. But what about the following, Mrs. Ambassador?

252 (1968) Urgently calls upon Israel to rescind measures that change the legal status of Jerusalem, including the expropriation of land and properties thereon.

262 (1968) Calls upon Israel to pay compensation to Lebanon for destruction of airliners at Beirut International Airport.

267 (1969) Urgently calls upon Israel to rescind measures seeking to change the legal status of occupied East Jerusalem.

271 (1969) Reiterates calls to rescind measures seeking to change the legal status of occupied East Jerusalem and calls on Israel to scrupulously abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention regarding the responsibilities of occupying powers.

298 (1971) Reiterates demand that Israel rescind measures seeking to change the legal status of occupied East Jerusalem.

446 (1979) Calls upon Israel to scrupulously abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention regarding the responsibilities of occupying powers, to rescind previous measures that violate these relevant provisions, and “in particular, not to transport parts of its civilian population into the occupied Arab territories.”

452 (1979) Calls on the government of Israel to cease, on an urgent basis, the establishment, construction, and planning of settlements in the Arab territories, occupied since 1967, including Jerusalem.

465 (1980) Reiterates previous resolutions on Israel’s settlements policy.

471 (1980) Demands prosecution of those involved in assassination attempts of West Bank leaders and compensation for damages; reiterates demands to abide by Fourth Geneva
Convention.

484 (1980) Reiterates request that Israel abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention.

487 (1981) Calls upon Israel to place its nuclear facilities under the safeguard of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency.

497 (1981) Demands that Israel rescind its decision to impose its domestic laws in the occupied Syrian Golan region.

573 (1985) Calls on Israel to pay compensation for human and material losses from its attack against Tunisia and to refrain from all such attacks or threats of attacks against other nations.

592 (1986) Insists Israel abide by the Fourth Geneva Conventions in East Jerusalem and other occupied territories.

605 (1987) Calls once more upon Israel, the occupying Power, to abide immediately and scrupulously by the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Times of War, and to desist forthwith from its policies and practices that are in violations of the provisions of the Convention.

607 (1986) Reiterates calls on Israel to abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention and to cease its practice of deportations from occupied Arab territories.

608 (1988) Reiterates call for Israel to cease its deportations.

636 (1989) Reiterates call for Israel to cease its deportations.

641 (1989) Reiterates previous resolutions calling on Israel to desist in its deportations.

672 (1990) Reiterates calls for Israel to abide by provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention in the occupied Arab territories.

673 (1990) Insists that Israel come into compliance with resolution 672.

681 (1990) Reiterates call on Israel to abide by Fourth Geneva Convention in the occupied Arab territories.

904 (1994) Calls upon Israel, as the occupying power, “to take and implement measures, inter alia, confiscation of arms, with the aim of preventing illegal acts of violence by settlers.”

1073 (1996) Calls on the safety and security of Palestinian civilians to be ensured.

1322 (2000) Calls upon Israel to scrupulously abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention regarding the responsibilities of occupying power.

1402 (2002) Calls for Israel to withdraw from Palestinian cities.

1403 (2002) Demands that Israel go through with “the implementation of its resolution 1402, without delay.”

1405 (2002) Israel Calls for UN inspectors to investigate civilian deaths during an Israeli assault on the Jenin refugee camp.

1435 (2002) Calls on Israel to withdraw to positions of September 2000 and end its military activities in and around Ramallah, including the destruction of security and civilian infrastructure deaths during an Israeli assault on the Jenin refugee camp.

1515 (2003) Calls on Israel to fulfil its obligations under the Roadmap to a Permanent Two-State Solution.

1544 (2004) Calls on Israel to respect its obligations under international humanitarian law, and insists, in particular, on its obligation not to undertake demolition of homes contrary to that law.

The above list relies on this compilation by Professor Stephen Zunes, updated from the primary sources. Note that it only includes resolutions which Israel currently is flaunting; otherwise it would have been longer. For instance, UNSC Resolution 425 (1978), calling on Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, was ignored by the former for 22 years.

3. To the extremely limited extent that passed UNSC resolutions are palatable to Israel, could that possibly be because the US, after adopting Israel as a client state in the early 1970s, has used its veto power more than all other permanent members during that period combined? After all, since Ambassador George Bush cast the first pro-Israel veto in 1972, forty UNSC Resolutions critical of Israel have been shot down by the USA, the most recent one calling for a halt to the Lebanon slaughter.

I rest my case.

Update:

UNITED NATIONS — The U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a weak statement Thursday expressing shock and distress at Israel’s bombing of a U.N. post on the Lebanon border that killed four unarmed military observers but no condemnation.

[snip]

The United States, Israel’s closest ally, insisted on dropping any condemnation or allusion to the possibility that Israel deliberately targeted the post in the town of Khiam near the eastern end of the border with Israel.

[snip]

The initial draft proposed by China would have had the council express shock and distress at Israel’s “apparently deliberate targeting” of the U.N. base and condemn “this coordinated artillery and aerial attack on a long-established and clearly marked U.N. post.”

In that draft, China was following Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s statement late Tuesday that Israel appeared to have struck the site deliberately — an accusation Israel vehemently denies.

Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Dan Gillerman called the statement “very fair and balanced” and said it was right for the council to adopt it in memory of the four peacekeepers.”

FOX News

June 28, 2006

A brief history of Kosovo. Part II: 1989-1999

Crossposted from European Tribune.

It is always wise to start with the beginning:

A brief history of Kosovo. Part I: 1189-1989.

1989 On St. Vitus Day, June 28 1989 — the 600th anniversary of the mythologized battle — Slobodan Milošević returned to Kosovo Polje as president-elect of the Serbian Republic. Also back for the occasion was Prince Lazar, whose holy remains had toured the Orthodox monasteries of Yugoslavia for two years, rousing Serbian nationalism. As many as a million pilgrims convened at the plains, waving “Slobo’s” picture alongside that of his illustrious predecessor.

However, Milošević’s actual address on that day has been misrepresented on a scale almost comparable to the events which it commemorated. Though it did, ominously enough, suggest that armed struggle “should not be excluded yet,” it was hardly a “stirringly virulent nationalist speech” (The Economist, June 05, 1999, US edition) that “whipped a million Serbs into a nationalist frenzy” (Time International, July 9, 2001). On the contrary, it touted the peaceful coexistence of ethnic groups within common borders. Why the shift in rhetoric?

This declaration provides a clue: “Serbia of today is united and equal to other republics.” Milošević, in other words, had already achieved one of his key objectives and was seeking to consolidate his position at the helm of an undivided Yugoslavia.

There are rival accounts of how this came to be. The following is that of the the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia:

9. […] In early 1989, the Serbian Assembly proposed amendments to the Constitution of Serbia which would strip Kosovo of most of its autonomous powers, including control of the police, educational and economic policy, and choice of official language, as well as its veto powers over further changes to the Constitution of Serbia. Kosovo Albanians demonstrated in large numbers against the proposed changes. Beginning in February 1989, a strike by Kosovo Albanian miners further increased tensions.

10. Due to the political unrest, on 3 March 1989, the SFRY Presidency declared that the situation in the province had deteriorated and had become a threat to the constitution, integrity, and sovereignty of the country. The government then imposed “special measures” which assigned responsibility for public security to the federal government instead of the government of Serbia.

11. On 23 March 1989, the Assembly of Kosovo met in Pristina and, with the majority of Kosovo Albanian delegates abstaining, voted to accept the proposed amendments to the constitution. Although lacking the required two-thirds majority in the Assembly, the President of the Assembly nonetheless declared that the amendments had passed. On 28 March 1989, the Assembly of Serbia voted to approve the constitutional changes effectively revoking the autonomy granted in the 1974 constitution.

This version of what happened on March 23 1989 was, it must be emphasized, vigorously disputed by witnesses for Milošević at The Hague. What is clear is that Kosovo’s autonomy was downgraded to pre-1974 levels at Milošević’ behest. The Serbian Parliament followed up by passing a number of discriminatory laws, including one that barred Albanians from selling real estate without permission from Serbian authorities.

In July 1990 a majority of Albanian delegates in the Assembly of Kosovo responded by unofficially declaring Kosovo an “equal and independent” republic of SFRY, complete with a shadow government. Greg Campbell, in his book The Road to Kosovo, sums up what happened next:

In response, Milosevic suspended Kosovo’s parliament and its government, fired Albanians holding influential political posts and purged them from the police force, shut down Albanian-language media, closed all Albanian educational institutions, and banned Albanians from being treated in state-run medical establishments…. [This] had its desired effect: large numbers of Albanians fled Kosovo. The Serb-dominated police force fueled the migration through brutality, violence, and torture aimed at the Albanian majority. But the Serbian crackdown didn’t quell the [Albanians’] desires for autonomy; it simply upped their demands: now, instead of wanting just intra-Yugoslavian freedom, they were demanding full independence as a new nation. (152-3)

By September 1990, a US National Intelligence Estimate warned that “the Yugoslav experiment has failed, that the country will break up” and that “this is likely to be accomplished by ethnic violence and unrest which could lead to civil war.” Yet like most close observers, it predicted that the first region engulfed by war would be Kosovo itself. Instead the Kosovo conflict set off a chain reaction through Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia that not before 1998 completed the circle and blew up the detonator.

The Serbian crackdown in Kosovo induced Slovenians to vote overwhelmingly for independence in a December 1990 plebiscite. As this left Serbia too dominant for their liking, it moved Croatia, Bosnia, and Macedonia to secede as well. The ensuing war in Bosnia left at least 100,000 dead and created 3 million refugees. The international community could do little to halt the carnage, and did even less.

How did the powder keg of Kosovo avoid war in the early 1990s? One factor is that, despite voting overwhelmingly for independence in an unofficial referendum of September 1991, Albanians lacked the military and political muscle to force secession, while Belgrade was kept in check by the outside world, notably the US. According to a former US ambassador to Croatia, the Bush sr. administration was more concerned about potential war in Kosovo and its destabilizing effects than about Bosnia. In its “Christmas Threat” of late 1992 — since reiterated by President Clinton — it threatened military action if Milošević were to deploy in Kosovo.

Another factor is the pacifism of the late Ibrahim Rugova; a silk-scarfed, Sorbonne-educated academic who in May 1992 was voted President of the “Republic of Kosova” in clandestine elections. Rugova and his party, the Democratic League of Kosova (DLK), favored passive resistance, establishing an underground state of diaspora-financed parallel institutions to which Serbian police saw fit to turn a blind eye. The strategy of the DLK was quietly to await Western support for independence. However, the US and the EU were by now preoccupied with Bosnia. Thus, when the 1995 Dayton Accords recognized Serbia and Montenegro as the new Yugoslavia and the sanctions were lifted, this was not made conditional even upon restored autonomy for the troubled province.

While understandable given the urgency of ending the Bosnian bloodbath, the neglect of the Kosovo question left ethnic Albanians — now on their own with the Serbs and Montenegrins — worse off than in the old SFRY. In result, many DLK adherents gave up on the non-violent approach and switched to the Kosova Liberation Army (KLA): a clan-based rag-tag militia which by 1993 had evolved from emigré separatist groups in Western Europe, comprising refugees from the 1980 crackdown. Faithful to the 19th century nationalist ideal of a polity coextensive with the ethnicity, it revived the old pipedream of uniting the ethnic Albanians of Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia, and Albania itself in a Greater Albania. This grandiose irredentist project, harking back to the League of Prizren of 1878, was the long-term ambition. The KLA’s immediate end was independence.

As to the means it was prepared to use, indisputably part of its funding derived from organized crime, possibly including participation in the infamous Balkan Route of heroin to Western Europe. There have also been reports of ties with jihadi groups. Most likely, both accusations contain elements of truth — the former perhaps more than the latter — but have been exaggerated in pro-Serb propaganda. The KLA was not the armed wing of Albanian organized crime, nor did its agenda and leadership have much to do with political Islam.


KLA fighters.

In early 1996 the KLA launched a low-intensity insurgency, ambushing security forces and assailing “collaborators.” Its existence was long only rumored, but by early 1997 it began to claim responsibility.
Stocking up on cheap Kalashnikovs from the looted armories of Albania, then in a state of anarchy after the collapse of nation-wide pyramid financing schemes, the KLA escalated operations throughout the year. On the night to September 11 it performed a series of ten coordinated attacks as much as 150 km apart. On November 28 — a date commemorated as a national day among Kosovo Albanians — a KLA member appeared in public as such for the very first time.

At this point the guerrilla began to target civilian Serbs. The master strategy was a kind of martial judo familiar from terrorist campaigns: turning the enemy’s strength against him. Pinprick operations aimed to provoke disproportionate reprisals which would rally Kosovo Albanians around its cause and, with any luck, elicit Western intervention. Perhaps aware of this risk in the light of Clinton’s threats, and having experience with provocation tactics himself, Milošević shied away from deploying the army.

He eventually changed his mind. On some accounts, this happened when on February 23 1998, US special envoy Robert Gelbard imprudently, if not inaccurately, called the KLA “without any question a terrorist group” which the US condemned “very strongly.” Within a week, Serbian special forces backed by helicopter gunships and armoured personnel carriers performed a brutal crackdown in the western Drenica region, flattening entire towns that served as strongholds for leading KLA (and mafia) clans. To go by Kosovo Albanian sources, this involved summary executions, even outright massacres. Albanian media reported a hundred thousand attending the funerals.

The sweep continued into March, notably at the village of Prekaz in central Kosovo, where fifty-three members of the Jeshari clan allegedly were slaughtered. The KLA made the most of this, posting photos of the corpses on the Internet as soon as available. A massive uprising followed, swelling the ranks of the KLA. Meanwhile, up to 400,000 Kosovo Albanians were forced to flee their homes, some at gunpoint and many over the mountains to Albania.

This humanitarian disaster led to the UN Security Council to impose economic sanctions and an arms embargo on Yugoslavia, threatening “additional measures” if it failed to withdraw. To underline the point, 85 NATO aircraft overflew Albania and Macedonia; the US Sixth Fleet, put on battle alert, cruised into the Adriatic in a show of force. Finally, in late September the Clinton administration opened the door for air strikes; in October, NATO authorized such in the case of non-compliance with “the repeated political and humanitarian demands of the UN Security Council in regards to Kosovo.”

Belgrade had no choice but to fold. In the so-called Holbrooke-Milošević agreement of October 12, it agreed to restore Kosovo’s autonomy and pull out the army and police in return for a lifting of the UN sanctions. A multinational corps of 750 civilian monitors, under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), moved in to supervise the implementation.

By all accounts, the some 130 strong US contribution to this Kosovo Verification Mission (KVM) was heavily spy-infested. (There are unverified allegations that the KVM head, US diplomat William Walker — an old Latin America hand with stints in El Salvador and Honduras — was himself CIA.) According to the Sunday Times, the Americans operated on “completely different terms” than the Europeans, providing advice and combat manuals to the KLA.

The latter for its part was neither party to nor content with the ceasefire. It surged forth into the power vacuum, seizing half the province and extending a makeshift administrative structure as it went along. As reported in the BBC2 documentary Moral Combat, Walker confidentially told NATO’s governing body that the guerrilla was now “the main initiator of the violence,” apparently engaging in “a deliberate campaign of provocation.”

On January 15 1999, another massacre occurred in the town of Racak, a KLA stronghold in southern Kosovo, where some 45 Albanians were murdered in cold blood after attacks on Serbian police. Or so, at any rate, William Walker assured a press conference, describing in gory detail the aftermath of an “unspeakable atrocity” and a “crime against humanity.” The charge would be central to the case against Milošević in The Hague, where Walker testified for the prosecution about the heaps of dead bodies he had seen on that day.


Bodies at Racak — combatants or civilians?

Yet doubts immediately arose about this incident. There are indications that it was a hoax staged by the KLA to trigger NATO intervention. Frustratingly, there are also persuasive counter-arguments. In a sense it hardly even matters, inasmuch as neither side was morally above what it stood accused of by the other side. What is clear is that, if it was indeed a KLA hoax, it succeeded.

News of the Racak incident broke within hours of a National Security Council meeting in which US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who had for nearly a year favored putting military pressure on Milošević, argued in vain for “decisive steps.” Albright later called Racak “a galvanizing incident,” meaning that it galvanized will to contemplate the use of force.

She was right, both in terms of the Clinton administration and international opinion. For the German Foreign Minister Joschka Fisher, for instance, “Racak became the turning point”: “If people are being massacred, you cannot mutter about having no [UN Security Council] mandate. You must act.” Within two weeks, NATO announced its readiness to intervene, France and Britain vowed to send in ground troops if needed, and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan stateed that Bosnia had proven “the need to use force, when all other means have failed.”

Finally, the so-called Contact Group of Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Russia and the US summoned the parties, on pains of NATO airstrikes, to the Château de Rambouillet outside Paris. Talks began on February 6 amidst intermittent clashes, torched villages, and a Serbian presence some six times heavier than allowed by the ceasefire. What transpired at Rambouillet has been, it is fair to say, misrepresented widely in US and European media to this day.

It was announced that, merely by taking part, the parties implicitly accepted 26 principles which the British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook had stated on January 30. These non-negotiable principles were culled from the January 27 version of an ‘Interim Agreement’ drafted by the US envoy, Holbrooke’s deputy Christopher Hill.

This framework mandated an immediate truce and disarmament followed by restored self-government for Kosovo within the FRY. Upon free elections supervised by the OSCE, the province would enjoy its own parliament, president, judicial system and police; the cultural rights of all ethnic groups would be respected; all political prisoners would be released; and a final settlement would be reached after three years. A new version of the agreement, presented to the parties upon arrival, specified that the latter would occur through a “mechanism” determined by an “international meeting” on the basis of “the will of the people” and various “opinions” and “efforts.” Albright gave the parties one week to endorse this fait accompli and hash out the details, otherwise “appropriate conclusions” would be drawn. In case of Yugoslav refusal, that meant air strikes; in case of Albanian ditto, abandonment to the Serbs.

According to French journalist Paul-Marie De La Gorce writing in Le Monde Diplomatique, the Yugoslavian delegation accepted the proposal. However, the KLA did not: preferring status quo to “mere” autonomy, it demanded a clause guaranteeing eventual independence. This situation — Serbian acceptance cum Albanian refusal — was the opposite of what the US State Department had expected. Albright arrived on February 20 to persuade the KLA’s delegation leader, Hasim Thaci, to sign.

In a letter to Thaci dated 22nd February, she provided an interpretation of the aforementioned “mechanism”:

This letter concerns the formulation (attached) proposed for Chapter 8, Article 1 (3) of the interim Framework Agreement. We will regard this proposal, or any other formulation, of that Article that may be agreed at Rambouillet, as confirming a right for the people of Kosovo to hold a referendum on the final status of Kosovo after three years.

Quoted in Tim Judah: Kosovo, p. 215.

The next day, negotiations were adjourned, the KLA delegation heading off to Macedonia to consult with its leaders; the US sent down Senator Bob Dole to continue the lobbying. In addition to Albright’s concession, three novel elements were now introduced to further sugar the pill: elections would be held ASAP; the disarmament would not extend to “private weapons”; and last but not least, NATO forces would ensure Yugoslavian compliance.

On March 15, talks resumed in Paris and the KLA announced its readiness to sign the deal unilaterally.

And unilateral the signing would be, for the deal had evolved into something completely unacceptable to Belgrade. It is unclear whether Milošević knew of Albright’s letter; if so, that alone explains his refusal to sign. Having arguably lost three wars in the former Yugoslavia, he could ill afford to lose Kosovo, which he had personally touted as the Serb nation’s ancestral home and the embodiment of its historical martyrdom. Neither his government nor the equally nationalist opposition, nor indeed the disaffected Serbian populace, would condone secession.

The other novelties were also inedible to Belgrade. The revised ‘Interrim Agreement for Peace and Self-Government in Kosovo’ required Serbian security forces to withdraw to at least 5 km from the border. A NATO force with no upward cap or oversight by the the UN Security Council would move in and assume full control, including over the airspace. As if this were not enough, Appendix B on the ‘Status of Multi-National Military Implementation Force’ effectively authorizes NATO occupation of the entire Former Republic of Yugoslavia:

NATO personnel shall be immune from any form of arrest, investigation, or detention by the authorities in the FRY… [and] enjoy, together with their vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and equipment, free and unrestricted passage and unimpeded access throughout the FRY including associated airspace and territorial waters. This shall include, but not be limited to, the right of bivouac, maneuver, billet, and utilization of any areas or facilities as required for support, training, and operations…. The authorities in the FRY shall facilitate, on a priority basis and with all appropriate means, all movement of personnel, vehicles, vessels, aircraft, equipment, or supplies, through or in the airspace, ports, airports, or roads used.

There is an under-appreciated irony in the Czech-born Albright informing reporters that “Munich is my mindset” while trying to coerce a sovereign state into accepting loss of territory on terms such as these. The pro-Serbian side of the continuing debate (or shouting match) argues that said terms both explain and justify Milošević’s rejection of the Rambouillet Accord. Pro-NATO pundits counter that they were lifted from the Dayton Accords, wherein Croatia agreed to the equivalent, and that they were anyway negotiable had the Serbs engaged in negotiation, which they did not.

The latter claim is flatly denied by De La Gorce. According to him, Belgrade’s prime representative at Rambouillet — the President of Serbia, Milan Milutinović — suggested an “international presence” in Kosovo independent of NATO and comprising forces from Russia, Greece, and Western Europe.

Some commentators go as far as to suggest that the US deliberately provoked Belgrade’s rejection to clear the way for war. A more plausible analysis is that it gambled and lost. Faced with the likelihood that no possible agreement would be acceptable to both the parties, its strategy was to secure a KLA signature with all necessary concessions and then make Milošević an offer he could not refuse. Such inequitable use of stick and carrot proved a grave miscalculation on March 18, as the KLA delegates signed while their Yugoslav counterparts refused.

Later that day, Clinton declared that “the treshold had been crossed” in regard to triggering NATO intervention. On the following day, “winter live fire exercises” commenced in Kosovo, prompting evacuation of KVM personnel; again according to the Sunday Times, CIA elements handed over advanced communications equipment to the KLA before leaving.

A major diplomatic crisis ensued. Russia had informally condoned the threat against Yugoslavia but stressed that it could never tolerate its actual implementation. China, preoccupied with sovereignty, was also opposed. Thus, though it cited several UN Security Council resolutions, the first war in NATO’s history lacked an explicit UNSC authorization. Within NATO, Greece and Italy objected.

But the resistance was brushed aside, in part, no doubt, owing to another miscalculation: the US and NATO believed that a brief, token bombing campaign would compel Milošević to sign. This belief also helps account for Clinton’s cavalier vow, in his March 24 address to the nation, that no ground troops would be deployed.

Moreover, the strategic error sheds light on the absence of planning characterizing Operation Allied Force from its beginning later on that day. A recent PhD dissertation by Captain Dag Henriksen at the Norwegian Air Force Academy documents that the NATO targeting cell at the air operations center CAOC Vicenza was asked to find arbitrary targets for a campaign of 2-3 days with no guidance as to strategic objectives. The personnel found the situation so amateurish that they assumed a political deal had already been struck with Milošević. When by a week later nothing had changed, the targeters decided to improvise a strategy of their own.

Based upon interviews with most central actors of Allied Force including the SACEUR, General Wesley Clark, Henriksen also brings out another, and quite remarkable, reason for the neglect of NATO strategy: unbeknown to its allies, the US unilaterally ran a bombing campaign of its own, hitting targets without NATO control. Consequently these targets were sometimes hit twice. European chiefs of staff reacted with fury to discovering this.

To the extent that key allies were kept out of the dark, it happened in a “Black Committee” comprising the US, the UK, and France. The democratic institutions of NATO were creatively bypassed to evade political control with the escalation of target categories as the campaign stagnated.

As other analysts have shown, there was conflict even between Clark and his principal US subordinate, Lt Gen Michael Short of the US Air Force. Clark ordered Short to target air defenses and military units in Kosovo while the latter wanted, as he put it, to “strike at the head of the snake” — Belgrade. Despite threatening to resign, he got permission for shock and awe tactics only by the end of May, by which time sorties had multiplied from 400 to 900 a day and there was still no resolution in sight, much to Washington’s despair. The target list was expanded to include infrastructure like bridges (more than half of those over the Danube were hit); oil refineries and power plants (causing nation-wide power blackouts); government facilities; factories owned by allies of Milošević; the state broadcasting service RTS (at the cost of 16-17 civilian lives); and infamously, the Chinese embassy.


Bombed bridge at Novi-Sad

Meanwhile, things had been taking a dramatic turn on the ground. True to form, and far from any idea of surrender, the cynical Milošević had taken the opportunity to launch the most extensive campaign of forced deportation since World War II, resulting in hundreds of thousands fleeing to Macedonia and Albania within the end of March. This ethnic cleansing was precisely the kind of atrocity the air strikes were supposed to prevent: a true humanitarian disaster on an epic scale. Adding insult to injury, Belgrade was able to argue that the refugees were running from NATO bombs.

Nor did the air strikes weaken Milošević’s popular standing, as naïvely anticipated. On the contrary, the Serbs rallied around him against the superior foreign enemy in what the propanganda could paint as a 20th century Kosovo Battle. To punctuate the symbolism, units of the Yugoslav army exercized on the myth-imbued plains as they trained to confront the NATO ground invasion that could not be excluded — especially not after British PM Tony Blair began to publically advocate it in April. Washington shut him up, but the option was now on the table and increasingly pushed by others, including Clark.

What ultimately swayed Milošević was probably less the strategic bombing than this prospect of ground troops, combined with the unwelcome news that Russia would stay passive in such a scenario.

By the end of April, NATO woke up to the necessity of dealing with Russia, so far humiliated and left to impotent rage as a fellow orthodox nation was attacked (Russian PM Yevgeny Primakov turned his Washington-bound plane around in mid-flight at the war’s beginning). By May, Russia and Germany had opened a secret back channel wherein a Swedish financier, Peter Castenfelt, was smuggled into Belgrade. He communicated to Milošević that not only President Yeltsin but the Russian security establishment would hang him out to dry if he failed to exit. This had the virtue of being true: Yeltsin, moved by the urgency of ending a war that sent his approval ratings nose-diving, had somehow bought off the military, which otherwise might have rebelled. All this according to the aforementioned BBC2 documentary, Moral Combat.

On May 31, Belgrade announced its consent to the Rambouillet Accord. The Serbian Parliament gave it the nod three days later, Milošević reportedly voting in favor. A withdrawal agreement was finalized on May 9, followed on May 10 by pullout; ratification of the Accord by the UNSC; preparations for the ongoing KFOR peacekeeping mission; and suspension of Operation Allied Force 11 weeks after it began.

NATO had launched a total of 38,004 combat sorties, of which 10,484 were strikes against targets in the FRY (Serbia, Kosovo, and Montenegro), and 18,439 were aerial tanker and airlift sorties. The Alliance’s first war properly so-called was also the first in history without a single combat fatality for the victor. As to civilians, Human Rights Watch confirms that at least 500 Yugoslav such were killed in 90 separate incidents over 78 days of bombing, a number considerably smaller than Yugoslav public estimates of up to 5,000 civilian casualties.

On the other hand, the 2000 report noted that:

U.S. officials, including Secretary of Defense William Cohen, Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre, and Gen. Wesley Clark, have testified before Congress and stated publicly that there were only twenty to thirty incidents of “collateral damage” in the entire war. The number of incidents Human Rights Watch has been able to authenticate is three to four times this number. The seemingly cavalier U.S. statements regarding the civilian toll suggest a resistance to acknowledging the actual civilian effects and an indifference to evaluating their causes.

The report also found that NATO on several occasions broke international humanitarian law, and criticized the use of cluster bombs in civilian areas. Another controversial issue has been the use of DU-tipped munitions, whose detrimental health effects, according to some authorities, are seen in the cancer statistics today.

But what of the campaign’s overarching strategic goals for Kosovo — were these achieved? That is hard to say, not least because these were so ill-defined in the first place. Asked by Captain Dag Henriksen to which extent the operational planning focused on what Kosovo would look like when the strongest military alliance in history had prevailed, then deputy SACEUR General Rupert Smith replied: “Oh, it wasn’t in focus at all.”

Such myopia, especially on the political level, had consequences. Upon the end of hostilities in June, Kosovo Albanian refugees started to return; but at the same time, Serbs fled or were chased out by Albanians in equally large numbers. By July 20, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimated that 150,000 Serbs were flooding into Serbia, which already harbored half a million refugees from the other ex-Yugoslavian wars. The total number of refugees from Kosovo rose to some 230,000, most of them Serbs. Of these, over 200,000 remain Internally Displaced Persons in what is Europe’s biggest refugee problem. A hundred thousand Serbs stayed put among approximately 1.8 million ethnic Albanians, among whom little love was lost on Serbs.

This minority now dwell in KFOR-guarded enclaves, with limited freedom of movement and high unemployment even by the standards of a dysfunctional UN protectorate where only the black economy flowers. The Serbian apartheid state has effectively been inverted. More than 4,000 Serbs worked at the public electricity service in 1999; today around 30 do so, out of 8,000 employees. Meanwhile, barbed wire and armed KFOR troops protect those medieval monasteries that remain recognizably intact.

Independence is, however, finally in the offing, mostly because the Western powers acknowledge once again that the majority would never settle for less. Serbia, impoverished and demoralized, is unable to do more than strut and fret at the impending loss of its “historical heartland.”

For now. Anyone doubting that ancient history lives in the Balkans should bear in mind quite a recent incident. On May 24, 1999, Slobodan Milosevic had become the first sitting head of state to be charged with war crimes in the midst of a war, the charges including murder and deportation in Kosovo. A little more than two years later, he was himself deported to the cell at the Hague that would be his final home.

The date chosen for his extradition just happened to be St. Vitus Day, June 28.

June 16, 2006

Whale and circus

Crossposted from European Tribune.

It’s that time again. Today the International Whaling Commission (IWC) opens its annual session on St. Kitts. Among the close to 70 member states whose delegates fill the halls, only 3 — Norway, Iceland, and Japan — have whalers in their ranks. Yet the so-called pro-whaling wing will for the first time in decades match the anti-whaling wing this year; the English-language press has for weeks been fretting about the prospect of a narrow pro-whaling majority. The Washington Post recently intoned under the stirring headline ‘Save the Whales’:

LIKE MANY Americans, you might think the world had already saved the whales. The cause that galvanized so many people’s environmental consciences, after all, produced an international ban on whaling fully two decades ago.

A couple of facts about this “ban” might be helpful right off the bat. First, the IWC passed the “ban” without the recommendation of its own Scientific Committee, which did not consider it necessary. Second, said “ban” was a temporary moratorium, to be reviewed in 1990 “at the latest” with an eye to fixing new, sustainable quotas. The treaty document states:

This provision will be kept under review, based upon the best scientific advice, and by 1990 at the latest the Commission will undertake a comprehensive assessment of the effects of this decision on whale stocks and consider modification of this provision and the establishment of other catch limits.

This “comprehensive assessment” has been stubbornly blocked by the anti-whalers, even though, as the Economist noted in a well-balanced article of 2003:

In the years since the moratorium was imposed, the IWC’s scientists have determined that in certain waters minke, fin, Gray and Bryde’s whales are now abundant enough to be hunted commercially. They have also devised a conservative method for calculating catch limits. At first, the IWC’s politically appointed commissioners refused to accept their findings, prompting the resignation of the scientific committee’s British chairman, Philip Hammond, in 1993. Since then, the discussions have become bogged down over non-scientific issues, as the anti-whalers have frustrated all attempts to lift the moratorium. As justification for this behaviour, some anti-whaling governments talk about the IWC’s “evolving” mandate.

The IWC’s actual mandate is not to suppress the hunt. It is to implement the 1946 International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling, whose “explicit objectives were, and remain, to provide for the proper conservation of whale stocks and the orderly development of the whaling industry.” Source: the IWC.

Iceland, taking this at face value, was lured into accepting the moratorium; when it got the wiser, it left the IWC in 1992. Ten years hence it rejoined with an objection to the moratorium, exempting it from the latter under the Convention. Japan and Norway both reserved themselves at the outset by filing objections and so were entitled to commercial whaling seasons.

For Norway’s part this remains the case. It nonetheless voluntarily suspended hunting until 1993, when it was clear that the anti-whaling majority would not allow the overdue assessment to take place. (From a legal point of view it can, in fact, be argued that the moratorium expired wholesale in 1990, but let’s leave that aside.) Norway’s whaling season is openly commercial — though by no means industrial or large-scale — so it is incorrect when the Observer, in a not exactly unbiased article entitled ‘The shadow of slaughter hangs over whales’, accuses Norway of hiding behind a scientific pretext.

Japan, on the other hand, withdrew its reservation under US pressure. The Japanese side of this story deserves a hearing:

The U.S. placed pressure on Japan using the Packwood-Magnuson Amendment to make Japan accept the moratorium. This domestic Law prohibits fisheries within the U.S. 200-mile coastal zone in case any country diminishes the effectiveness of the International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling. Japan withdrew the objection from the IWC and terminated the whaling operations under the agreement between the U.S. and Japan. Japan was concerned about its own $650 million fishing industry and its $40 billion trade surplus toward the U.S. at that time…. In spite of the U.S.’s promise to refrain from imposing sanctions on Japan, the U.S. executed the Packwood-Magnuson Amendment on Japan in 1988….

It’s a fair guess that this sense of having been double-crossed helps explain Japan’s insistence on exploiting a loophole permitting whaling for research.

Returning to the WaPo:

Yet whaling continues. In fact, it’s increasing. Japan, Norway and Iceland never stopped hunting whales…. Lately those numbers have been creeping up, and this year they are almost doubling to nearly 2,400 whales. What’s more, Japan is no longer limiting itself to relatively plentiful minke whales but is once again hunting the decimated populations of fin and sperm whales and plans to begin killing humpback whales as well. In 2008, Japan and Norway plan to kill 3,215 cetaceans.

The reemergence of whaling could get a considerable boost this month at, of all places, the meeting of the International Whaling Commission - the body that supervises the supposed ban on commercial hunting.

Norway and Iceland never stopped hunting? For Norway’s case, see above. As to Iceland, it suspended activity from 1989 to 1993, when it reintroduced a scientific quoata of 38 minke in order to “have a better understanding of all the factors that might impact fish stocks - including whales.”

As to the meeting in St. Kitts, the WaPo is concerned:

Japan has aggressively sought pro-whaling allies, and it now has close to a majority of votes. While it would take more than a majority to undo the ban, it would significantly relieve pressure on those countries that flout the ban if a majority of the commission didn’t care.

Not so fast. First, noone is ‘flouting the ban’. The hunting carried out today is unquestionably legal, however else one feels about it, and implying otherwise is simply dishonest. It is not, however, uncommon: Reuters claims that Norway “openly defies the ban.” The Independent called Norway’s hunt ‘illegal’ on June 11, demonstrating that it’s not above a “noble” lie, much like veracity-challenged organizations such as Greenpeace.

Second, Japan has indeed been recruiting allies, even using foreign aid as an incentive. However, the strategy of involving countries with no horse in the race is one that leading anti-whaling members have pursued for a generation. The IWC was established in 1946 by the world’s 14 main whaling nations. Between 1979 and 1982, 19 new countries joined; ten attended their first IWC-meeting in 1982. Thus, for instance, landlocked Switzerland helped pass the moratorium. This April, Israel, which has hitherto had bigger fish to fry than whaling, saw fit to join. Since when has one the few countries rejecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty favored multilateral regimes? According to the Haaretz, since the US ambassador made a personal appeal to the Israeli Foreign Minister on the matter.

Third, the pro-whaling High North Alliance notes that the theoretical pro-whaling majority may not manifest itself in votes in the chaotic bargaining circus that is an IWC session. In any case, the pro-whalers will not be able to raise the 3/4 majority required to scrap the moratorium. The “considerable boost,” which the Independent decries as a “Great Betrayal,” is unlikely to amount to much in practice.

But the bullying of the anti-whaling countries, spurred by organizations like Greenpeace for which the issue is an effective fundraiser, isn’t doing so either. If anything, the Economist notes, this Ahab-like zeal is prone to backfire:

Their mixture of propaganda, insults, distorted scientific half-truths and lies tends to stir up nationalist sentiment among the pro-whaling countries, who consider themselves victims of sanctimonious foreigners practising cultural and culinary imperialism.

[snip]

How might this bizarre war of attrition come to an end? For a start, those opposed to whaling could look themselves in the eye and ask why a multinational organisation, reflecting the views of just one group, should claim for itself the right to deny other countries the freedom to kill their own animals, which are in plentiful supply, as they see fit? Should those who disapprove of the killing of animals according to kosher or halal practice set the universal slaughtering standards for Jews and Muslims? Should Hindus be allowed to impose their views about cow-killing on the world’s hamburger-eaters? Should militant vegetarians have the right to forbid anyone anywhere to kill an animal?

In fact, less moralising from the anti-whalers might even serve their purpose better, if that purpose is indeed to save whales from the harpoon. The economics of whaling is unlikely ever to attract much hunting, and certainly nothing on a large scale. It is the politics that excites: politicians champion whaling in Japan, Iceland and Norway because it is popular to stand up to foreign bullying.

Can someone please explain this to, say, the ambassadors from 12 countries who recently, in an unusual diplomatic move reminiscent of the Muhammed madness, saw fit to impugn the integrity of Norway’s marine researchers? These researchers are independent, leading in their field, and applying the method devised by the IWC Scientific Committee to set sustainable catch quotas for the North Atlantic minke whale.

And what will it take to make anti-whaling governments realize that, if they doubt the resource management of whaling nations, they should let the IWC itself perform that role in accordance with its mandate?

If demand for whale meat is indeed dwindling in the whaling countries, as they claim, then surely that is the way to let the whaling business die a natural death, while in the meantime making whaling nations more receptive to legitimate questions of animal welfare?

Or is the endless whaling brouhaha just too convenient as a diversion from truly grave environmental challenges like global warming, the depletion of fish stocks, and the pollution of the seas?

For more on the facts and ethics of Norwegian minke whale hunting, see my previous post, Why I had whale steak for dinner today.

June 14, 2006

More lies from Lanka

In “news” from the failed state of Sri Lanka, a certain H. L. D. Mahindapala at an “online newspaper” known as the Asian Tribune bleats:

After meeting the Sri Lankan Foreign Minister, Mangala Samaraweera, in Oslo the Norwegian Foreign Minister, Jonas Gahr Stoere, dropped a bombshell at the press conference.

He said: “Norway will present no new mediation or peace initiative in the Sri Lanka conflict.”

This act is compared to the pilot jumping off the plane in mid air. Analysts state that this could lead to a deepening of the crisis. Analysts also agree that this is an admission of Norwegian failure in peace-building after being engaged in it for over six years.

The Asian Tribune, which I refuse to dignify with a link, is perhaps the most dishonest online publication I’ve yet encountered in twelve years on the Internet. Basically a shrill propaganda outlet for Sinhala extremism of the absolutely crudest kind, it has shied away from nothing to undermine the peace process by constant bitching about Norway being “biased” toward the LTTE. Not content with accusing the peace broker of ulterior motives too lame to repeat, it has insinuated that the Norwegian peace envoys have masterminded terrorist attacks to boost their importance.

The evidence? “Analysts state,” “analysts agree,” “analysts note.” These are the Asian Tribune’s euphemisms for “we have pulled this out of our rectums, aren’t we great?”

No, you are shameless hacks. If the “pilot” has indeeed left the “plane” — and at this point I only wish that were the case — rest assured that Asian Tribune helped push him out. Now, as the aircraft is tailspinning to the ground, it scolds him for having been so ejected.

Oy, that’s rich.

PS. The aforementioned H. L. D. Mahindapala won’t be affected by the civil war. He’s an expat in Australia.

We want our desk back

The New York Times reports on a geopolitical image problem:

WASHINGTON, June 13 — As the war in Iraq continues for a fourth year, the global image of America has slipped further, even among people in some countries closely allied with the United States, a new opinion poll has found.

Favorable views of the United States dropped sharply over the past year in Spain, where only 23 percent said they had a positive opinion, down from 41 percent last year, according to the survey. It was done in 15 nations, including the United States, this spring by the Washington-based Pew Research Center.

Other countries where positive views dropped significantly include India (56 percent, down from 71 percent); Russia (43 percent, down from 52 percent); and Indonesia (30 percent, down from 38 percent). In Turkey, only 12 percent said they held a favorable opinion, down from 23 percent last year.

Declines were less steep in France, Germany and Jordan, while people in China and Pakistan had a slightly more favorable image of the United States this year than last. In Britain, Washington’s closest ally in the Iraq war, positive views of America have remained in the mid-50-percent range in the past two years, down sharply from 75 percent in 2002, before the war.

A memory from high school in the 90s: One morning as I come to class, a strange heavy-set dork wearing a baseball cap is seated at my desk. He returns my quizzical look with a hostile stare; I find another desk. It turns out he’s an American student visiting a girl in my class on an exchange program of sorts. He has accomplished this by bragging of his outstanding cooking skills and way of ruling the dance floor, both of which are fictional; his hobby is to slack on the couch laughing uncontrollably at sitcoms. A sample of his interaction with the locals:

Fat American Dork (approaching guy): “How many push-ups can you do?”

Bystanding girl: “Real intelligent question.”

Fat American Dork to girl: “Can I do some push-ups on you?”

Fat American Dork is not a typical US citizen. He is emblematic of how a big proportion of earthlings perceive the US as a member of the world society. If nations were to be imagined as individuals, I suspect that something like Fat American Dork is how many would visualize the US.

For some of us, Fat American Dork has advanced in age — though hardly in maturity — and traded a few pounds for a monstrous mustache. In defiance of Congress’ wishes, he is now the US emissary to the world; a psychotic Captain Kangaroo who alienates everyone, most recently Oxford students, and who goes by the name of John Bolton.

Here’s Bolton’s MO as ambassador to the United Nations, as described by Sebastian Mallaby in the Washington Post:

As soon as Bolton got to New York, he blew up the preparatory negotiations for a gathering of heads of state, insisting that the other 190 members of the world body immediately agree to hundreds of changes in the summit document.

If Bolton had picked a fight on a worthwhile issue, this might have been justified. But one of the chief aims of his edits was to eliminate all mention of the anti-poverty Millennium Development Goals, even though these targets for reducing child mortality and so on are inoffensive.

[snip]

Bolton’s next triumph was to demand U.N. reform, or rather to pretend to do so. An effort to create a credible human rights council was underway, but Bolton skipped nearly all of the 30 or so negotiating sessions. Then, when the negotiators produced a blueprint for the new council, Bolton declared it unacceptable, leaving furious American allies to wonder why he hadn’t weighed in earlier to secure a better outcome. “The job now is to get clarity on what the U.S. wants,” the British ambassador said icily. But what Bolton really wanted was quite clear: to allow the negotiations to falter and then to condemn whatever they produced, throwing red meat to his U.N.-hating allies on the right of the Republican Party.

As every last one of those allies know, the UN was devised by Stalin to transform all Americans into cross-dressing, tree-hugging Muslims riding pink bycycles to work while degenerate bureaucrats steal them blind. It’s essential that they never forget this; if the UN were to actually be reformed, they conceivably might.

Guess what? The world is beginning to want its desk back.

June 9, 2006

Just let them do their thing

In the Sri Lanka conflict, Norway’s angelic patience is wearing thin:

Norway puts Sri Lanka parties on notice as talks fail

Colombo, June 9. (PTI): Norway today said it was reconsidering its role as Sri Lankan peace facilitator after failing in its latest bid to arrange a meeting between the warring parties in Oslo.

The Norwegian government in a two-page statement issued here after the aborted face-to-face meeting in Oslo yesterday, said the situation in Sri Lanka was “grave” but it could not continue unless the parties cooperated.

“The grave situation in Sri Lanka, with escalating violence in breach of the Ceasefire Agreement, is intolerable for the civilian population and a cause of great concern to the international community,” Norway said.

“The full responsibility for halting violence and giving the peace process a new start, rests with the parties.” Norway said the Nordic-run Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) will not be able to function following objections from the LTTE to the presence of members from countries which has banned the Tigers.

I never thought I would feel this way, but here I am: Just ditch these lying fools and let them slug it out. It’s what they want and what they do best.

June 7, 2006

John Bolton melts down at UN

Since there is a five-minutes recess in the threat-making against Iran, the fulminating fascist John Bolton gets off by threatening the United Nations, FOX News reports:

[US ambassador to the UN John] Bolton called Tuesday’s speech by Deputy Secretary-General Mark Malloch Brown a “very, very grave mistake” that could undermine Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s efforts to push through an ambitious agenda at the world body.

[snip]

“To have the deputy secretary-general criticize the United States in such a manner can only do grave harm to the United Nations,” Bolton said. “Even though the target of the speech was the United States, the victim, I fear, will be the United Nations.”

Uh-oh. Is another tall building in NY about to turn into debris? Or merely lose ten stories? Clearly something earth-shattering has occurred:

“I spoke to the secretary-general this morning, I said ‘I’ve known you since 1989 and I’m telling you this is the worst mistake by a senior U.N. official that I have seen in that entire time,”‘ Bolton told reporters on Wednesday.

The. Worst. Mistake. By a senior UN official. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall! In other words, a very very very grave mistake — worse than the Oil-for-Food scandal, and the surrender of Srebrenica to General Mladic, and the failure to investigate the sexual abuse by UN Peacekeepers of impoverished Congolese kids.

That must have been some speech.

So what dynamite did it contain? An unconditional endorsement of bin Laden? A call to assassinate Bush? Or perhaps it was personal; say, an unfavorable comparison of Bolton’s moustache to Nietzsche’s, or of his harassment skills to those of his old buddy Clarence Thomas?

No. No, it was something else:

In the speech, Malloch Brown said the United States relies on the United Nations as a diplomatic tool but doesn’t defend it against criticism at home, a policy of “stealth diplomacy” that he called unsustainable.

He lamented that the good works of the U.N. are largely lost because “much of the public discourse that reaches the U.S. heartland has been largely abandoned to its loudest detractors such as Rush Limbaugh and Fox News.”

And the absolute lowest blow, we are told, was this:

U.S. officials, including Bolton, said they were especially upset that Malloch Brown, a Briton, mentioned “Middle America.”

Bolton said Malloch Brown’s “condescending, patronizing tone about the American people” was the worst part about the speech.

“Fundamentally and very sadly, this was a criticism of the American people, not the American government, by an international civil servant,” Bolton said. “It’s just illegitimate.”

A reference to ‘Middle America’ was a graver mistake than Srebrenica and puts the future of the UN at risk.

I am sure this makes perfect sense — if you just happen to be psychotic like, say, John Bolton.

May 24, 2006

Bush snubbed Iranian peace offer

Oh Jesus fuck. Excuse the language, but this is just too much.

That’s it. I hereby officially abandon all attempts at restraint in discussing the Bush regime. The picture below says it all.

April 30, 2006